And now Logan

[nny]

Logan is a very, very interesting case study, in that he's changed a lot in basically every single year he's been in the minors.

For a back story, he was drafted as a draft and follow by the Marlins in 2005. He ended up signing in May '06 and was just another player as an 18 year old in the GCL and NYPL.

'07 was a breakout of sorts. He was by no means a prospect house hold name, but several places like Future Fish (Ranked #23) and John Sickels (Ranked #17) rated him as an interesting power prospect. As a 19 year old, he hit 24 HRs in Greensboro with a HR/FB of 16.8%. However, that was the only thing he did well. His batting AVG was a poor .268 thanks to a BABIP of .293. He's K% was barely acceptable at 22%, and his walks weren't impressive for a power spec at only 9%. Overall, you'd hope for something like



Basically, Mike Jacobs. And unsurprisingly, Jacobs had a similar MILB career to Logan's 06 numbers.

Then '07 happened. His power numbers decreased, his ISO dropped 50 points, he only hit 13 HRs with a HR/FB of 10.4%. Power is expected to drop from Greensboro to Jupiter but, for being a power prospect, it was really on the high end.

And yet he was vaulted to being one of the best prospects in baseball. He still walked at 10% but dropped his K's down to 16%, but he also had a massive .374 BABIP. This was not unwarranted. His LD% in Greensboro was only 13.5%. But in Jupiter, it was a massive 21.1%. He went from being an power prospect to being a line drive contact hitter. However, a .374 BABIP is huge, especially with someone as slow as he is. Certainly, there are people like Miguel Cabrera who are able to sustain high BABIPs while being slow thanks to just how well they hit the ball, but you cannot expect somebody to be a player of that caliber. At which point you're basically expecting something around



The biggest thing to understand with his HRs is he has a very high GB% that hovers around 50%. With 20 HRs there, that's still a 14% HR/FB rate assuming a 31% FB rate.

Then the AFL happened. He .404/.444/.667/1.111 with 5 HRs in 107 PAs, showing power again. And the lack of walks was far from concerning: when you're hitting .404 and only strike out 14% of the time, that shows you're not getting a lot of balls/bad pitches.

In '07 he showed power, in '08 he showed average (and then showed the same power in the AFL). But he never showed a great ability to walk. Not bad, but not exactly good either. Then '09 happened and made him the complete hitter. He's currently leading all of pro baseball outside of possibly short season leagues in walk% at 21%, with only 1 less walk then game played in AA.

I don't know how unprecedented it is, but having a guy walking at an average rate to having the best walk percent in all of baseball is quite a huge jump.

His BABIP has taken a large step back, at just .289, but he's still hitting a ton of LDs (22%) and GBs (52%) showing that it's very likely an aberration. He still has his BABIP skills.

He's also showing a lot more raw power, having a HR/FB of 16.7%. Still, over 650 PA he'd only be on pace for 18 HRs, thanks to only hitting a FB a fourth of the time (25.2%).

At this point, he truly is the completely package. He walks, he doesn't strike out, he hits for average, he hits for power. There is basically no hole in his offensive game.

Now the difference between him being a very good hitter and being one of the best in the league comes down to his GB and FB rates. If he can turn ~10% of his GBs into FBs, it basically adds about 5 HRs. And when you consider that he is a slow runner, the decrease in GBs should not put that much of a damper on his BABIP.

Now to his other aspects. Scouts describe his defense as "Good arm, good hands, bad range." To me, this generally speaks below average. Now yes, the fact that fielding stats have yet to gauge how good a 1b is at catching throws to him, it's doubtful it adds a significant amount, and lack of range is not a good thing. Total Zone rated him at -5/150 last season, which would put him at about -10 at the ML level. I definitely don't expect him to be that bad. Running wise, well, he's slow. He shouldn't cost us much on the bath paths but slow is slow.



What most likely happens: His lack of FBs keeps him from really breaking out in the HR department, but his high HR/FB still allows him to hit a lot. His LD and other abilities allow him to be in the upper 1/4th in the league in BABIP, but his speed keeps him from being in the elite category. He walks, he doesn't strike out, basically he is your prototypical mid-.800 OPS hitter

Best case scenario: Speed be damned, his ability to hit the ball puts him at the upper echelon of BABIP. He's able to drop his GB% and raise his FB%, allowing him to break the 30 hr cusp. This new found power then allows him to walk more, and he's patient enough to take the walks not not strike out. He'll likely always K too much to be the next Albert Pujols, but everything else here is basically Miguel Cabrera reincarnated.

Worst case scenario: He just hits too many GBs to hit for above average power. His ability to hit BABIP is still good, but as he faces better pitching and defenses it only becomes good and not great.

Due to playing first base, and not exactly being impressive there or on the base paths, his WARs aren't that impressive given his OPS. There is the chance he moves to the OF (about +5 runs), but I'd expect him to be about 5 runs worse out there, essentially nulling the positional bonus.

[Ramp]

awesome work again nny

[swift]

Morrison fascinates me, but (and I realize I'm in the majority) I don't think he's a sure thing by any means.

A wrist injury is a huge thing for a player (even a young player) to come back from, his 2009 has been kind of so-so, and I guess I'm old fashioned in this regard, but when a player comes out of nowhere to be a super-prospect, and then suffers a set back and returns sluggishly, I don't know if I call them a super-prospect any more. I think with Logan, you could tell me that he's a 10 year starter for us or that he peaks as a AAAA player in 2011, is waived 3 times and becomes a platoon DH and I'd believe it, too. I think with Morrison, and really only him, there's such a tremendous variance between where I see his high and low. I just don't see the certainty with him, if for no other reason than the injury.

[MiamiHomer]

The reports that were always made during the Marlins games by Frank and Craig were that it was a thumb injury not wrist. I'm almost positive.

[nny]

Jul 24, 2009 14:50:14 GMT -5 MiamiHomer said:

The reports that were always made during the Marlins games by Frank and Craig were that it was a thumb injury not wrist. I'm almost positive.

Yeah, I thought that was clarrified for us when ramp e-mailed (Hill I think it was?) and was told it was a thumb injury, and that any reputable source since then has called it a thumb injury

[nny]

Good post by wanks he should be coming back here soon:

Good stuff, but you're being a bit too optimistic on Logan. He's more likely a .780-.810 OPSer unless he improves those ground ball rates, unless he's the extremely rare guy who can ISO around .180 with a 48% (or higher) GB rate or he's able to hit over .300. And without the power threat, he'll probably get attacked to the point he doesn't hit .300 (but that's just a guess) or walk at such a high rate (again, a guess, but I'd bet his walk rate drops to around 10-12% if the power isn't there)

Logan's a career 49.2 GB%, and he's not trending in the right direction (sample size obvi), with 46.7% in 2007, 47.6% in 2008, and 51.2% in 2009. Now yeah, like you said, this isn't necessarily the worst thing, but take a look at the MLB players who had over 48% GB in 2006, 2007, and 2008 (don't like using 2009 b/c of how many games are left):

2006: http://www.fangraphs...on=2006&month=0

2007: http://www.fangraphs...on=2007&month=0

2008: http://www.fangraphs...on=2008&month=0

Now, a list of those with a GB% > 48 and an ISO of .180 or better:

2006: (ended up not doing this, 2008 and 2007 took too long)

2007: 2/26. Vlad (.223 ISO with 48.5 GB and 14.5 FB, but it's Vlad), Torii Hunter (48.8 GB, .218 ISO, 15.1 HR/FB)

(Other notables: Jose Guillen had a GB of 48.3 and a 170 ISO for an .813 OPS. Russell Martin had GB of 48.4 and ISO of .176 for OPS of 843. Gary Matthews had 50.8 GB with .167 ISO and 11.8 HR/FB. Kotchman had 50.6 FB with .172 ISO and 8.1 HR/FB)

2008: 3/24. Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips (261 BA, 181 ISO, with 13.2% HR/FB), JJ Hardy (48.4% GB, 283 BA, 195 ISO, 821 OPS) ( (Fred Lewis ISO'd .158 and OPSed .791 with a .282 BA, but his HR/FB rate was lower than Logan's. Still, I guess he shows it's possible in 2008). Still, 3/24 with GB > 48% ISO'd over .180.

(I may have missed someone, so you can go back and check. I did this pretty quickly).

I mean, I know it's a 2 year sample size, which isn't a tremendous amount. But 5/50 guys have a GB rate over 48% and an ISO over .180. So yeah, 10% chance (exclusive of HR/FB consideration I know), which isn't good.


I realize Logan's HR/FB% makes him more likely to put up a solid ISO with such a high GB rate. And that's fine, but at the same time, it's reasonable to assume that when he enters the majors Logan's GB% increases b/c major league pitchers are more likely to attack him that way than by trying to get him to pop up (b/c of his power).

And, as you said (and unlike Maybin wiht his high GB%) Logan's not going to be beating out grounders with his speed, and major leaguers suck up more ground infield ground balls with their defense than do minor leaugers. And with the increased GBs, the BABIP drops, and the BA drops, and then the OPS drops.

It's probably not unprecedented for a guy to drop his GB% by 5-10% upon entering the majors (which Logan would probalby have to do to OPS in the mid 800's), but I can't imagine it happens often. I mean, maybe it does sometimes. But intuitively I'd guess GB% probably increases upon entering the majors.

And still, even if Logan's only ISOing .150-.160 (which I think is more reasonable based on his GB rates and HR/FB rates), he can still OPS ~.825 in those years where he's able to hit ~.290, so long as his walk rates don't drop too much once pitchers see he's not a huge power threat. That's a pretty productive 1B, but at the same time - not the monster 1B everyone's hoping for.

Now Logan could always tweak his swing to put the ball in the air more - kind of like what Maybin's staring to do at AAA - but is Pressley the guy to do that? And is it worth counting on Logan tweaking his swing in order to reduce his ground balls? And, seeing as he's a solid bet to be at least league average in terms of 1B, is tweaking his swing with the hope it will produce more fly balls worth it.

I guess I don't totally disagree with your projections, just your "most likely case." I don't have the faith that Logan's able to cut down on those ground balls enough to ISO high enough to put up that mid 800s OPS. He's far more likley to fall into the .150-.160 ISO range unless he's part of that 10% that can ISO +.180 with a GB rate of 48% or better.

Now, even as a high 700's/low 800's he won't be a disappointment, and he could still be a very useful player. But if people are pretty set on Logan being a mid-high 800's hitter, it's not going to happen unless he changes some thigns in his swing/plate approach so that those GBs drop. And, to be honest, most people will probably be pissed if Logan turns out ot be a low 800's OPS guy, just like they'll be pissed when Maybin's a .770 OPS player and Dominguez doesn't OPS like .850.

[nny]

response:

First I want to say thanks for posting, what you said about Maybin obviously had an impact on the update projection.

Secondly, an easy way to do it would be to import everything into excel (or open office which is what I use but same basic thing lol). Just a heads up since you were complaining about the time it took

Thirdly, you can't compare Logan to guys without raw power. I think that's the main problem with the "GB" thing. A lot of GB hitters are slap hitters, and you can't compare Logan to slap hitters. I would assume HR/FB rate would be the best way to do it.

Since 2002-2008, there have been 203 times a player has posted a GB rate over 48%. Only 25 players have had a ISO of 180 or above, or only 12%. However, again, that's taking in a lot of slap hitters.

If we reduce it to only including players with a HR/FB north of 14%, which I assume you'd agree would be the least HR/FB to expect?

By doing this, we reduce the list to 34 times. 20 out of those 34 times a player has posted .180 or better ISO (59% of the time). The average ISO is .183.

List:



If we then look at these individual players careers

These are the players to compare him too. GB hitters with power. And they show power. I think this is also a more positive thing for Maybin, and something I wish I looked more into. I probably wouldn't really change his projection power wise (with a discussion on Fish Stripes i'd lower his BABIP for is high and low), since Maybin is having a horrible HR/FB year in AAA this year (8%). But he does have a MILB HR/FB of 14%. Average ISO of players with a HR/FB between 8%-14% = .108 ouch lol.

Anyway, if we then look at those players careers, to properly compare power numbers



Keep in mind guys careers like Larry Walker, GB% and HR/FB are only post 2002

So several guys with a GB% north of 50 have been power hitters. Considering I projected a HR/FB 17.6%, I don't think the ISO of 187 is too high. THe arguement would be on the HR/FB. If you drop that to 14%, and no change in other XBH, it'd drop to 20 HRs and a 0.161 ISO. .287/.372/.448/.820 not changing anything but HRs. However, considering he's posting a 16.1% HR/FB in AA as a 21 year old, and has always been labeled as a power prospect, I think it's fair to say he will be north of 16% HR/FB.

Though, it probably would be best to project him to be on the low end. I think as can be seen by my Maybin and Gaby projections they're lower then what most people expect. I don't know just how many people are reading these because I know not that many go into the minor league forum, and I plan to post it in the main forum when it's all finished, but the last thing I want is for people to expect the prospects to come up hammering. Plain and simple people think prospects are going to do better than what they really shoudl be expected, especially for fans of the team the prospect is on. And I let my love of Logan overshadow that. So when I post it up there I might adjust it.

[nny]

More importantly:

interesting addendum re: Logan and HR/FB

Jupiter's HR park factor for HRs has basically been 0.70 since 2003.

If we apply that to Logan's HR/FB (10.4%)

10.4 / .7 = 14.9%

Not sure if it works like that or not but interesting none the less.

and

I've been applying this to a few guys and it gives a bit lower HR/FB rate then what other guys have done later

Obviously just doing a few samples but I think this is actually big to understanding power numbers guys put up in jupiter. For so long we've been "it's jupiter, power will go down" but without really an understand of how much it'd improve.

Fun fact with stanton: posted a 27% HR/FB in Greensboro, people said that was too high. Applying this to his jupiter numbers, his HR/FB goes from 19.5% to 27.9%. However, his Jax HR/FB hasn't been too hot (19%)

[wanks1212]

I'll say thanks for the reply and I don't know that I'm going to be able to get in everything I want to now, but a few things before I get started:

1. I realize that slap hitters comprise most of those who have GB rates > 48, so yeah I like that you threw them out. That's good.

2. No problem with projecting Logan's HR/FB over 14%, but to a point.

3. This is going to be tough for me to do b/c there's no MILB GB data on most of these guys, but one thing I want to look at is the ISO of those 17 players you listed in their final few (I'm thinking two, preferably when they're roughly age 22) seasons before heading to the majors. I don't like looking at career MILB ISO b/c most guys (the non-freaks unlike Stanton) won't hit for power at a young age. But looking at the ISO of those 17 in the seasons before their callup, and seeing just how much that ISO dropped compared to their career rates, may give a reasonable expectation of whether Logan can maintain a decent ISO.

Of course this assumes, among other things, their GB tendencies in teh minors were similar to their MLB ground ball rates.

and I mean this isn't going to be perfect, but it's kind of illustrative b/c it can teach us what to expect in terms of MILB ISO v. MLB ISO for primarily GB hitters. But there's also the problem of late developing power and limited data on the MILB careers of the older guys...so I mean, maybe it's not the best idea, but at the same time it does work in showing how much of a dropoff (or increase) in MLB ISO could be expected.

One problem, though, is the age/level difference between Logan and these guys. That hurts the comp in some cases.

Logan's ISOing .184 as a 21 (soon to be 22) year old at AA. He ISOed .166 as a 20 year old at A+. So, he's improving, which is good. He'll probably get another year in the minors at AAA, so we'll have more data and stuff then, but for now that's all we can go on with Logan.

But for Logan to ISO 180 (and OPS around .850), he'll (obvi) have to maintain or increase that ISO. And the group of players you mentioned doesn't show that most of those guys were able to maintain or increase their MILB ISO once they entered MLB.

Anyway, among the players you named:

Greive ISOed .290 as a 21 year old in 589 PA between AA and AAA. -> MLB ISO way lower, wow was he a good prospect who didn't work out

Preston Wilson ISOed .244 as a 22 year old in A+/AA and 298 as a 23 year old in the AAA Marlins season. -> older than logan but may work next season. MLB ISO lower

Jacque Jones ISOed ..209 as a 23 year old at AA and .146 as a 24 year old at AAA (only 210 PA though) -> again, older, but MLB ISO higher and lower

Ken Harvey ISOed .168 as a 23 year old at AA (only like 350 PAs) and .188 as a 24 year old at AAA -> older, and I mean...Ken Harvey? lol. But MLB ISO lower

Larry Bigbie was kinda all over the place

Shawn Green ISOed .074 as a 20 year old in AA and ..166 as a 21 year old in AAA -> MLB ISO higher, at higher level than Logan

Hunter Pence doesn't have enough of an MLB career yet, but he ISOed .192 as a 22 year old in A+, .250 as a 23 year old in AA. -> MLB ISO lower, but he's prob too young

Gary Matthews ISOed .173 as a 23 year old AA, .130 as a 24 year old in AAA, and .151 as a 25 year old in AAA. -> MLB ISO higher

Jeter ISOed .105 as a 21 year old at AAA -> MLB ISO higher

Simon's all over in terms of MLB-minors

Tejada ISOed .183 as a 21 year old in AA (last full season) -> MLB ISO really similar

Hunter ISOed .168 as a 21 year old in AA, ..156 as a 22 year old in AA, and .206 as a 22 yeyar old in AAA (but less than 100 PAs) -> MLB ISO higher

Bernie Williams ISOed .179 as a 23 year old in AAA. - MLB ISO same, but this was the end of Bernie's career

Zeile and Walker are so far towards tthe end of their career it's probably not a good idea to compare their MILB #s to their MLB numbers in this case. Same thign with Bernie.



I think that's everyone?

Anyway I guess the point I'm trying to make with this is that a bunch of these guys saw thier ISOs drop or stay the same upon entering MLB. After Logan's AAA year it'll be easier to tell, but right now he'd have to maintain or increae his ISO in order to meet that .180ish mark, and among that group over their career not all that many were able to increase or maintain a .180ish ISO for their career.

That said, at his peak Logan may be able to go above the .180 iso mark. I wish there were numbers on guys like Walker nad Williams to see what their GB rates were like at the peak of their careers.

The other thing about this though is that most of these guys aren't the same type of athletes as Logan (Jeter, Hunter, Matthews, Pence, Tejada). Logan's a bigger, stronger, less athletic type compared to some of them. I mean, looking at the list, not many of these guys were 1B/LF types with defensive issues. Not sure if that's in Logan's favor (b/c then he'd be expected to grow into his power, and i mean this helps the hope for a 17% HR/FB projection) or against him (failrue to adjust b/c of lack of athleticism/long swing, hits more ground balls upon arrival in majors).

Yeah that was a ramble I didn't proofread but I hope you got the point I was hoping to make - that alot of the guys from that group of GB hitters weren't able to maintain their MILB ISO, and if Logan can't maintain his current MILB ISO he won't hit that magic .180 mark, for whatever reason (increased GB, drop in HR/FB, whatever)

[wanks1212]

and yeah i'd just say let's discuss this here. i don't want to go back there again. i feel dirty, like i just banged a port-au-prince hooker without a rubber

[nny]

apperently whatever you posted broke it cuz it won't even load for me

[nny]

.166 ISO is never all that good but considering it's Jupiter I don't think it's something to really worry about. Adjust the park factor would increase his HR to 18-19 (let's say 18). He then would have hit .342 ba and a .535 SLG, or .193 ISO. I understand the complaint that this would all be theoretical and so it's then predicting his power off theoretical numbers but I'm sure you'd agree park factors need to be taken into account.

Likewise, the same would need to apply to Greensboro, which would drop his HR/FB to about 12% there (17 HRs) and his ISO to about .170.

Somebody remind me in the offseason to do a "park factor neutralization" for our teams.

I also expect his power to raise in jacksonville. Again, I understand the complaint on this, projecting based off an expectation rather than what's actually happen. And it really is something where we won't have a proper guage until the end of the season, since he has such a small sample size at the moment. But you look at his first month back, which was because of a thumb injury, he had just a .100 ISO in june but in july it's .213. I normally hate montly splits and it's been proven time and time again that majority of the time it means nothign. However, in this case I think there's valid reason: it's going to take awhile for a hitter to come back from a hand injury. I except him to be around a .200 ISO from here on out.

There's also the improvement of his expected HR/FB. Again, theoritical, blah blah. But adjusting for Jacksonville (basically neutral, 1.05 HR factor), you're looking at 12% > 14.9% > 15.4%. Though I guess there is somewhat of an argument of why I even bring this up. Stop the presses: a guy has gotten more power as he has grown older!!!!!!! Oh well lol.

I also disagree he'll get another year in the minors. June call up imo if he doesn't light up ST (or, if he gets a sept call up, he'll probably start the year on the team unless he bombs ST. Since he's not on 40 man though I don't think it happens)

[nny]

Also what do you expect his HR/FB and babip to be?

[nny]

Obviously not perfect because we have no idea about other factors, park factors, ect but



average drop of -.004 ISO.

However, if we only look at those who started AA at 21 at the latest, you're looking at an average increase of +.016 ISO. Out of the 9, only three had signifcant drops: Ben Grieve (no surprise with how he flamed out), Felipe Lopez, and Randall Simon. Only one was about the same (+/- .010), Miguel Tejada (originally had Simon here with a +/- of .020 but I think .010 is better). The other 5 saw an increase of at least +.023 and on average +.050

[nny]

You're also my new toy. Respond to everything I post, ever, and you'll get treats. Otherwise I'll pop you on the nose.